Now I see, yes you are right. If you want the beliefs to be accurate at the civilisation level, that is the correct way of looking at it. This corresponds to the 1⁄3 conclusion in the sleeping beauty problem.
I was thinking of it on the universe level, were we are a way for the universe to understand itself. If we want the universe to form accurate beliefs about itself, then we should not include our own civilisation when counting the number of the civilisations in the galaxy. However, when deciding if we should be surprised that we don’t see other civilisations, you are right that should include ourselves in the statistics.
Now I see, yes you are right. If you want the beliefs to be accurate at the civilisation level, that is the correct way of looking at it. This corresponds to the 1⁄3 conclusion in the sleeping beauty problem.
I was thinking of it on the universe level, were we are a way for the universe to understand itself. If we want the universe to form accurate beliefs about itself, then we should not include our own civilisation when counting the number of the civilisations in the galaxy. However, when deciding if we should be surprised that we don’t see other civilisations, you are right that should include ourselves in the statistics.