So… do you have a plausible answer to the question “where is everybody?” Using distributions instead of point estimates (something I agree with, and something that is used in cosmology and astrophysics routinely, anyway) can change the overall probability, but how does it help the original question?
this does help the original question: “where is everybody” can reasonably be answered with “they’re on the other side of a coin flip”. in the point estimate version it was “they’re on the other side of some hundreds of consecutive coin flips”. so it helps the original question in that there’s far less that needs to be explained.
So… do you have a plausible answer to the question “where is everybody?” Using distributions instead of point estimates (something I agree with, and something that is used in cosmology and astrophysics routinely, anyway) can change the overall probability, but how does it help the original question?
this does help the original question: “where is everybody” can reasonably be answered with “they’re on the other side of a coin flip”. in the point estimate version it was “they’re on the other side of some hundreds of consecutive coin flips”. so it helps the original question in that there’s far less that needs to be explained.
Well, there are two answers here, that we are alone, and that we are not… I don’t get the sense of the answer from the OP.