Out of (1)-(3), I think (3)[1] is clearly most probable:
I think (2) would require Altman to be deeply un-strategic/un-agentic, which seems in stark conflict with all the skillful playing-of-power-games he has displayed.
(3) seems strongly in-character with the kind of manipulative/deceitful maneuvering-into-power he has displayed thus far.
I suppose (1) is plausible; but for that to be his only motive, he would have to be rather deeply un-strategic (which does not seem to be the case).
(Of course one could also come up with other possibilities besides (1)-(3).)[2]
E.g. maybe he plans to keep ASI to himself, but use it to implement all-of-humanity’s CEV, or something. OTOH, I think the kind of person who would do that, would not exhibit so much lying, manipulation, exacerbating-arms-races, and gambling-with-everyone’s-lives.
Or maybe he doesn’t believe ASI will be particularly impactful; but that seems even less plausible.
Out of (1)-(3), I think (3)[1] is clearly most probable:
I think (2) would require Altman to be deeply un-strategic/un-agentic, which seems in stark conflict with all the skillful playing-of-power-games he has displayed.
(3) seems strongly in-character with the kind of manipulative/deceitful maneuvering-into-power he has displayed thus far.
I suppose (1) is plausible; but for that to be his only motive, he would have to be rather deeply un-strategic (which does not seem to be the case).
(Of course one could also come up with other possibilities besides (1)-(3).)[2]
or some combination of (1) and (3)
E.g. maybe he plans to keep ASI to himself, but use it to implement all-of-humanity’s CEV, or something. OTOH, I think the kind of person who would do that, would not exhibit so much lying, manipulation, exacerbating-arms-races, and gambling-with-everyone’s-lives. Or maybe he doesn’t believe ASI will be particularly impactful; but that seems even less plausible.