I’m not sure about the exact threshold. If the odds were below 10% I think that would be enough for me to switch to AI.
There is one other way in which I think a career in genetics could translate into a career in existential risk mitigation: through reducing the likelihood of engineered pandemics. One of the key technologies that holds incredible potential for good and for harm is genome synthesis. Given the recent rates of cost decline, I worry that someone might be able to re-create super smallpox or something before we even get to TAI. A career in genetics would put me closer to that technology, so maybe I could help design systems to prevent that particular type of disaster.
I’m not sure about the exact threshold. If the odds were below 10% I think that would be enough for me to switch to AI.
There is one other way in which I think a career in genetics could translate into a career in existential risk mitigation: through reducing the likelihood of engineered pandemics. One of the key technologies that holds incredible potential for good and for harm is genome synthesis. Given the recent rates of cost decline, I worry that someone might be able to re-create super smallpox or something before we even get to TAI. A career in genetics would put me closer to that technology, so maybe I could help design systems to prevent that particular type of disaster.