I don’t think this contradicts any of my points. Causal Decision theory would never tell to the state department to behave as if leaks are impossible. Yet because leak probability is low, I think any diplomatic group openly published all its internal orders would find itself greatly hampered against others that didn’t.
Playing a game against an opponent with an imperfect model of yourself, especially one whose model-building process you understand, does not require a new decision theory.
I don’t think this contradicts any of my points. Causal Decision theory would never tell to the state department to behave as if leaks are impossible. Yet because leak probability is low, I think any diplomatic group openly published all its internal orders would find itself greatly hampered against others that didn’t.
Playing a game against an opponent with an imperfect model of yourself, especially one whose model-building process you understand, does not require a new decision theory.
It’s possible that the channel through which the diplomatic group internally communicates is completely compromised.