Ah, yeah, I’ll think about how to clear this up. The short answer is that, yes, I slipped up and used CDT in the usual way rather than the broader definition I had set up for the purpose of this post.
On the other hand, I also want to emphasize that EDT two-boxes (and defects in twin PD) much more easily than I see commonly supposed. And, thus, to the extent one wants to apply the arguments of this post to TDT, TDT would also. Specifically, an EDT agent can only see something as correlated with its action if that thing has more information about the action than the EDT agent itself. Otherwise, the EDT agents own knowledge about its action screens off any correlation.
This means that in Newcomb with a perfect predictor, EDT one-boxes. But in Newcomb where the predictor is only moderately good, in particular knows as much or less than the agent, EDT two-boxes. So, similarly, TDT must two-box in these situations, or be vulnerable to the Dutch Book argument of this post.
Ah, yeah, I’ll think about how to clear this up. The short answer is that, yes, I slipped up and used CDT in the usual way rather than the broader definition I had set up for the purpose of this post.
On the other hand, I also want to emphasize that EDT two-boxes (and defects in twin PD) much more easily than I see commonly supposed. And, thus, to the extent one wants to apply the arguments of this post to TDT, TDT would also. Specifically, an EDT agent can only see something as correlated with its action if that thing has more information about the action than the EDT agent itself. Otherwise, the EDT agents own knowledge about its action screens off any correlation.
This means that in Newcomb with a perfect predictor, EDT one-boxes. But in Newcomb where the predictor is only moderately good, in particular knows as much or less than the agent, EDT two-boxes. So, similarly, TDT must two-box in these situations, or be vulnerable to the Dutch Book argument of this post.
I had no idea there was a broader definition.