If the house goes sideways your opportunity cost is going way up. Needing to move is also correlated with the value of your house going down meaning you get forced to sell low. I agree that a guesstimate model with bounds would be ideal. I think it’s actually guesstimate’s killer app to give real estate predictions much better than point estimate calculators.
Hedging against changes in rent is fine. I think that if people were to look at the total cost of the rent hedge as a straightforward insurance contract many fewer would pay it due to the very high costs. I think ownership implies less risk to people than they’re actually getting over long time spans.
If the house goes sideways your opportunity cost is going way up. Needing to move is also correlated with the value of your house going down meaning you get forced to sell low. I agree that a guesstimate model with bounds would be ideal. I think it’s actually guesstimate’s killer app to give real estate predictions much better than point estimate calculators.
Hedging against changes in rent is fine. I think that if people were to look at the total cost of the rent hedge as a straightforward insurance contract many fewer would pay it due to the very high costs. I think ownership implies less risk to people than they’re actually getting over long time spans.