I’m pretty surprised this entire argument goes without using any amount of quantitive modeling or data analysis.
I do think it presents a bunch of persuasive and philosophical arguments in the direction of your conclusions, but it’s easy to imagine (and find, searching on the internet) persuasive and philosophical arguments in the opposite direction.
(Caveat: I’m a bit new to this forum and how things work, but surely for folks here this is better answered by building a model and incorporating uncertainty?)
A few of the specifics you give I’ve found are not borne out in the research I’ve done (e.g. price sensitivity has more to do with location/centrality than it does with luxury, though more luxurious homes tend to be built farther from city centers). This could just be from different sources, but I’m noticing want to wave several large [CITATION NEEDED] flags.
Also maybe it’d be useful to share the quantitative analysis I’ve done? Basically “modeling the financial, legal, and social implications of buying a house together” has been the biggest project of mine for 2019 outside of work, but I’m not an expert (most of us in my house, myself included, are first time home buyers). I’d consider myself better informed than the average person who has not owned a house for an extended period of time, but would be very interested in learning more and learning where my models are bad.
For interested folks I found Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance to give a bunch of nice solid models (backed with data!) on speculative pricing bubbles in ways that seem to apply to SF bay area housing in particular.
I’m pretty surprised this entire argument goes without using any amount of quantitive modeling or data analysis.
I do think it presents a bunch of persuasive and philosophical arguments in the direction of your conclusions, but it’s easy to imagine (and find, searching on the internet) persuasive and philosophical arguments in the opposite direction.
(Caveat: I’m a bit new to this forum and how things work, but surely for folks here this is better answered by building a model and incorporating uncertainty?)
A few of the specifics you give I’ve found are not borne out in the research I’ve done (e.g. price sensitivity has more to do with location/centrality than it does with luxury, though more luxurious homes tend to be built farther from city centers). This could just be from different sources, but I’m noticing want to wave several large [CITATION NEEDED] flags.
Also maybe it’d be useful to share the quantitative analysis I’ve done? Basically “modeling the financial, legal, and social implications of buying a house together” has been the biggest project of mine for 2019 outside of work, but I’m not an expert (most of us in my house, myself included, are first time home buyers). I’d consider myself better informed than the average person who has not owned a house for an extended period of time, but would be very interested in learning more and learning where my models are bad.
For interested folks I found Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance to give a bunch of nice solid models (backed with data!) on speculative pricing bubbles in ways that seem to apply to SF bay area housing in particular.
I’d be extremely interested in the quantitative analysis you’ve done so far.
2 years later, I’d still be interested in your model if you’re willing to share it.