I don’t agree that we sold our post as an argument for why timelines are short. Thus, I don’t think this objection applies.
You probably mean “why timelines aren’t short”. I didn’t think you explicitly thought it was an argument against short timelines, but because the post got so many upvotes I’m worried that many people implicitly perceive it as such, and the way the post is written contributes to that. But great that you changed the title, that already makes it a lot better!
That said, I do agree that the initial post deserves a much longer and nuanced response.
I don’t really think the initial post deserves a nuanced response. (My response would have been “the >30% 3-7 years claim is compared to current estimates of many smart people an extraordinary claim that requires an extraordinary burden of proof, which isn’t provided”.) But I do think that the community (and especially EA leadership) should probably carefully reevaluate timelines (considering arguments of short timelines and how good they are), so great if you are planning to do a careful analysis of timeline arguments!
You probably mean “why timelines aren’t short”. I didn’t think you explicitly thought it was an argument against short timelines, but because the post got so many upvotes I’m worried that many people implicitly perceive it as such, and the way the post is written contributes to that. But great that you changed the title, that already makes it a lot better!
I don’t really think the initial post deserves a nuanced response. (My response would have been “the >30% 3-7 years claim is compared to current estimates of many smart people an extraordinary claim that requires an extraordinary burden of proof, which isn’t provided”.)
But I do think that the community (and especially EA leadership) should probably carefully reevaluate timelines (considering arguments of short timelines and how good they are), so great if you are planning to do a careful analysis of timeline arguments!