If you expect the apocalypse to happen by a given date, you should rationally value having money then much less than the market(if the market doesn’t expect the apocalypse). So you can simulate a bet by having an apocalypse-expecter take a high-interest-rate loan from an apocalypse-denier, paying the loan back(if the world survives) at the date of the purported apocalypse(h/t daniel filan).
Couldn’t they just get lower interest rate loans elsewhere?
Or, interest doesn’t start until the bet outcome date passes? I’d give the apocalypse-expecter $1000 now, and they pay me back with interest when the outcome date passes, with no interest payments before then.
For those wanting to lend out money to gain interest on and use that money for EA causes, this might be useful:
Ya, I was thinking this, too, but they could possibly get a lot of loans or much larger loans at lower interest rates, and it’s not clear when they would start looking at this one as the next best to pursue. Maybe it’s more time-efficient (more loaned money per hour spent setting up and dealing with) to take this kind of AI-bet loan, though, but $1000 is very low.
If you expect the apocalypse to happen by a given date, you should rationally value having money then much less than the market(if the market doesn’t expect the apocalypse). So you can simulate a bet by having an apocalypse-expecter take a high-interest-rate loan from an apocalypse-denier, paying the loan back(if the world survives) at the date of the purported apocalypse(h/t daniel filan).
Couldn’t they just get lower interest rate loans elsewhere?
Or, interest doesn’t start until the bet outcome date passes? I’d give the apocalypse-expecter $1000 now, and they pay me back with interest when the outcome date passes, with no interest payments before then.
For those wanting to lend out money to gain interest on and use that money for EA causes, this might be useful:
https://founderspledge.com/stories/investing-to-give
This doesn’t mean necessarily that you shouldn’t take the bet, but maybe that you should also take the loan.
Ya, I was thinking this, too, but they could possibly get a lot of loans or much larger loans at lower interest rates, and it’s not clear when they would start looking at this one as the next best to pursue. Maybe it’s more time-efficient (more loaned money per hour spent setting up and dealing with) to take this kind of AI-bet loan, though, but $1000 is very low.
Yeah, this is what I had in mind. There wouldn’t be interest payments until the date of the apocalypse.