It’s not that there’s anything wrong with posting such a post saying you’re willing to bet, as long as you don’t sell it as an argument why timelines aren’t that short or even more downstream things like what EA leadership should do.
I don’t agree that we sold our post as an argument for why timelines aren’t short. Thus, I don’t think this objection applies.
That said, I do agree that the initial post deserves a much longer and nuanced response. While I don’t think it’s fair to demand that every response be nuanced and long, I do agree that our post could have been a bit better in responding to the object-level claims. For what it’s worth, I do hope to write a far more nuanced and substantive take on these issues in the relative near-term.
I don’t agree that we sold our post as an argument for why timelines are short. Thus, I don’t think this objection applies.
You probably mean “why timelines aren’t short”. I didn’t think you explicitly thought it was an argument against short timelines, but because the post got so many upvotes I’m worried that many people implicitly perceive it as such, and the way the post is written contributes to that. But great that you changed the title, that already makes it a lot better!
That said, I do agree that the initial post deserves a much longer and nuanced response.
I don’t really think the initial post deserves a nuanced response. (My response would have been “the >30% 3-7 years claim is compared to current estimates of many smart people an extraordinary claim that requires an extraordinary burden of proof, which isn’t provided”.) But I do think that the community (and especially EA leadership) should probably carefully reevaluate timelines (considering arguments of short timelines and how good they are), so great if you are planning to do a careful analysis of timeline arguments!
I don’t agree that we sold our post as an argument for why timelines aren’t short. Thus, I don’t think this objection applies.
That said, I do agree that the initial post deserves a much longer and nuanced response. While I don’t think it’s fair to demand that every response be nuanced and long, I do agree that our post could have been a bit better in responding to the object-level claims. For what it’s worth, I do hope to write a far more nuanced and substantive take on these issues in the relative near-term.
You probably mean “why timelines aren’t short”. I didn’t think you explicitly thought it was an argument against short timelines, but because the post got so many upvotes I’m worried that many people implicitly perceive it as such, and the way the post is written contributes to that. But great that you changed the title, that already makes it a lot better!
I don’t really think the initial post deserves a nuanced response. (My response would have been “the >30% 3-7 years claim is compared to current estimates of many smart people an extraordinary claim that requires an extraordinary burden of proof, which isn’t provided”.)
But I do think that the community (and especially EA leadership) should probably carefully reevaluate timelines (considering arguments of short timelines and how good they are), so great if you are planning to do a careful analysis of timeline arguments!