Re: 1: Do Dane’s Guestimate models ever yield >1 microdoom estimates for solo research projects? That sounds like a lot.
IIRC Linch estimated in an EA Forum post that we should spend up to ~$100M to reduce x-risk by 1 basis point, i.e. ~$1M per microdoom. Maybe nanodooms would be a better unit.
If your efforts improve the situation by 1 nanodoom, you’ve saved 8 people alive today.
Re: 1: Do Dane’s Guestimate models ever yield >1 microdoom estimates for solo research projects? That sounds like a lot.
IIRC Linch estimated in an EA Forum post that we should spend up to ~$100M to reduce x-risk by 1 basis point, i.e. ~$1M per microdoom. Maybe nanodooms would be a better unit.
If your efforts improve the situation by 1 nanodoom, you’ve saved 8 people alive today.