Automobile fatalities are only a small fraction of all fatalities, and smart cars for all would be more expensive than cryopreservation for only the people who actually died that year.
And when I’ve heard Sebastian Thrun talk about the altruistic case for autonomous vehicles, he doesn’t say, “We’re ready now,” he says, “We need to develop this as quickly as possible.” Though that’s mixing autonomous vehicles with human-driven ones, I suppose, not autonomous-only roads.
I think autonomous vehicles are a better example not because I think the EV is higher than that of cryonics, but because there are fewer ways to dispute it. There are a number of arguments, most of them well-known here, as to why cryopreservation is unlikely to work. It seems like a virtual certainty, on the other hand, that autonomous vehicles, if deployed, would save a large number of lives.
Edit: Also, you have your dimensions wrong on the financial calculation. The cost of autonomous vehicles should be amortized over their MTBF, not over one year.
Also, for it to be an unbiased comparison the two statements, “smart cars for all” and “cryopreservation for only the people who actually died that year” should be limited to the same domain.
If you compare different sets, one substantially larger than the other, then of course cryo is going to be cheaper!
A more balanced statement would be: “buying smart cars to save the lives of only the people who would have otherwise died by car accident in any given year would probably cost less than cryo-surance for the same set of people.”
Automobile fatalities are only a small fraction of all fatalities, and smart cars for all would be more expensive than cryopreservation for only the people who actually died that year.
And when I’ve heard Sebastian Thrun talk about the altruistic case for autonomous vehicles, he doesn’t say, “We’re ready now,” he says, “We need to develop this as quickly as possible.” Though that’s mixing autonomous vehicles with human-driven ones, I suppose, not autonomous-only roads.
With that said you certainly have a strong point!
I think autonomous vehicles are a better example not because I think the EV is higher than that of cryonics, but because there are fewer ways to dispute it. There are a number of arguments, most of them well-known here, as to why cryopreservation is unlikely to work. It seems like a virtual certainty, on the other hand, that autonomous vehicles, if deployed, would save a large number of lives.
Edit: Also, you have your dimensions wrong on the financial calculation. The cost of autonomous vehicles should be amortized over their MTBF, not over one year.
Also, for it to be an unbiased comparison the two statements, “smart cars for all” and “cryopreservation for only the people who actually died that year” should be limited to the same domain.
If you compare different sets, one substantially larger than the other, then of course cryo is going to be cheaper!
A more balanced statement would be: “buying smart cars to save the lives of only the people who would have otherwise died by car accident in any given year would probably cost less than cryo-surance for the same set of people.”
Plus you don’t die. Which, for me, is preferable.