Epistemic effort: I thought about this for 20 minutes and dumped my ideas, before reading others’ answers
The latest language models are assisting or doing a number of tasks across society in rich countries, e.g.
Helping lawyers search and summarise cases, suggest inferences, etc. but human lawyers still make calls at the end of the day
Similar for policymaking, consultancy, business strategising etc.
Lots of non-truth seeking journalism. All good investigative journalism is still done by humans.
Telemarketing and some customer service jobs
The latest deep RL models are assisting or doing a number of tasks in across society in rich countries, e.g.
Lots of manufacturing
Almost all warehouse management
Most content filtering on social media
Financing decisions made by banks
Other predictions
it’s much easier to communicate with anyone, anywhere, at higher bandwidth (probably thanks to really good VR and internet)
the way we consume information has changed a lot (probably also related to VR, and content selection algorithms getting really good)
the way we shop has changed a lot (probably again due to content selection algorithms. I’m imagining there being very little effort between having a material desire and spending money to have it fulfilled)
education hasn’t really changed
international travel hasn’t really changed
discrimination against groups that are marginalised in 2021 has reduced somewhat
nuclear energy is even more widespread and much safer
getting some psychotherapy or similar is really common (>80% of people)
discrimination against groups that are marginalised in 2021 has reduced somewhat
Does that prediction inlude poor white people, BDSM people, generally everybody who has to strongly hide part of their identity when living in cities or only those groups that compatible with intersectional thinking?
Just an outside view that over the last decades, a number of groups who previously had to suppress their identities/were vilified are now more accepted (e.g., LGBTQ+, feminists, vegans), and I expect this trend to continue.
I’m curious if you expect this trend to change, or maybe we’re talking about slightly different things here?
The groups LGBTQ+, feminists, vegans are part of one group of values and people we moved to a point where people with that group of values have no reason anymore to hide their identity when being in cities.
Most of the identities where people currently have a lot to lose when they reveal their identity don’t belong to that cluster. To the extend that the trend of that cluster becomes stronger continues, many people for whom it’s currently very costly to reveal their identity won’t gain anything and might even face a higher cost of revealing their identity.
Generally, the more polarized a society is, the higher the amount of people who have something to lose by revealing their identity. I see rising polarization.
Epistemic effort: I thought about this for 20 minutes and dumped my ideas, before reading others’ answers
The latest language models are assisting or doing a number of tasks across society in rich countries, e.g.
Helping lawyers search and summarise cases, suggest inferences, etc. but human lawyers still make calls at the end of the day
Similar for policymaking, consultancy, business strategising etc.
Lots of non-truth seeking journalism. All good investigative journalism is still done by humans.
Telemarketing and some customer service jobs
The latest deep RL models are assisting or doing a number of tasks in across society in rich countries, e.g.
Lots of manufacturing
Almost all warehouse management
Most content filtering on social media
Financing decisions made by banks
Other predictions
it’s much easier to communicate with anyone, anywhere, at higher bandwidth (probably thanks to really good VR and internet)
the way we consume information has changed a lot (probably also related to VR, and content selection algorithms getting really good)
the way we shop has changed a lot (probably again due to content selection algorithms. I’m imagining there being very little effort between having a material desire and spending money to have it fulfilled)
education hasn’t really changed
international travel hasn’t really changed
discrimination against groups that are marginalised in 2021 has reduced somewhat
nuclear energy is even more widespread and much safer
getting some psychotherapy or similar is really common (>80% of people)
Does that prediction inlude poor white people, BDSM people, generally everybody who has to strongly hide part of their identity when living in cities or only those groups that compatible with intersectional thinking?
I had something like “everybody who has to strongly hide part of their identity when living in cities” in mind
That suggests that groups that at the moment have no support at all will start to get support. Why do you think so?
Just an outside view that over the last decades, a number of groups who previously had to suppress their identities/were vilified are now more accepted (e.g., LGBTQ+, feminists, vegans), and I expect this trend to continue.
I’m curious if you expect this trend to change, or maybe we’re talking about slightly different things here?
The groups LGBTQ+, feminists, vegans are part of one group of values and people we moved to a point where people with that group of values have no reason anymore to hide their identity when being in cities.
Most of the identities where people currently have a lot to lose when they reveal their identity don’t belong to that cluster. To the extend that the trend of that cluster becomes stronger continues, many people for whom it’s currently very costly to reveal their identity won’t gain anything and might even face a higher cost of revealing their identity.
Generally, the more polarized a society is, the higher the amount of people who have something to lose by revealing their identity. I see rising polarization.