This got me wondering how to distinguish “maybe amazing” from “probably good”. Mathematically, in both cases higher mean is good, but “maybe amazing” prefers higher variance whereas “probably good” prefers lower variance.
For the purpose of recognizing these, what’s the gut feeling associated with variance? My guesses:
I’ve many times made the mistake of rejecting “sounds bad, but is unfamiliar” ideas in favor of “sounds good, but is predictable” ideas in environments where the former is preferable (thick upper tail distribution, as the article describes).
This got me wondering how to distinguish “maybe amazing” from “probably good”. Mathematically, in both cases higher mean is good, but “maybe amazing” prefers higher variance whereas “probably good” prefers lower variance.
For the purpose of recognizing these, what’s the gut feeling associated with variance? My guesses:
High variance: unfamiliar, novel, unpredictable. Negative emotion: confusion. Positive emotion: excitement.
Low variance: familiar, conventional, predictable. Negative emotion: boredom. Positive emotion: comfort.
I’ve many times made the mistake of rejecting “sounds bad, but is unfamiliar” ideas in favor of “sounds good, but is predictable” ideas in environments where the former is preferable (thick upper tail distribution, as the article describes).