Eric Bickel wrote two papers about weatherman calibration- 2008 paper and 2011 paper. They’re well-calibrated for some kinds of predictions but poorly calibrated for other kinds of predictions, and they also tend to have no skill at making predictions more than ~5 days out.
Eric Bickel wrote two papers about weatherman calibration- 2008 paper and 2011 paper. They’re well-calibrated for some kinds of predictions but poorly calibrated for other kinds of predictions, and they also tend to have no skill at making predictions more than ~5 days out.