Saying “the rationality minicamp was highly successful” before you have analyzed the data you have gathered to assess the success of the rationality minicamp is irrational.
I am in the mind of Einstein’s Arrogance here. The people involved in the camps received a lot of evidence that (obviously) isn’t available to us, because we weren’t there. They might have enough evidence to be convinced that it worked already—but of course, they also set up data-gathering mechanisms so that they could have enough evidence to convince people who necessarily don’t have access to the the physical experience of the camp that it worked.
I expect that this is the case, and Eliezer sees absolutely no problem with citing this as something in favour of Luke’s hire.
I am in the mind of Einstein’s Arrogance here. The people involved in the camps received a lot of evidence that (obviously) isn’t available to us, because we weren’t there. They might have enough evidence to be convinced that it worked already—but of course, they also set up data-gathering mechanisms so that they could have enough evidence to convince people who necessarily don’t have access to the the physical experience of the camp that it worked.
I expect that this is the case, and Eliezer sees absolutely no problem with citing this as something in favour of Luke’s hire.