I see one of the big advantages of a pause and training run limit (of any size and duration) being that it is a relatively blunt instrument that is relatively easy to evaluate.
It’s far from obvious whether such a limit would slow capability growth much.
One plausible scenario is that it would mainly cause systems to be developed in a more modular way. That might make us a bit safer by pushing development more toward what Drexler recommends. Or it might fool most people into thinking there’s a pause, while capabilities grow at 95% of the pace they would otherwise have grown at.
It’s far from obvious whether such a limit would slow capability growth much.
One plausible scenario is that it would mainly cause systems to be developed in a more modular way. That might make us a bit safer by pushing development more toward what Drexler recommends. Or it might fool most people into thinking there’s a pause, while capabilities grow at 95% of the pace they would otherwise have grown at.