I’ve thought a bunch about why Taleb doesn’t see this, why he worries about some things but not others, especially in the (relatively rare) cases where I think he gets it wrong. My model of this is that Taleb expects fat tails in the distributions to be more common than people expect and to dominate in importance, but in this framework, to be a fat tail you need to be on the distribution at all.
Oh you are being much too charitable to Taleb here. I don’t think he spent 5 minutes thinking about the issue before confidently saying that everyone who disagrees with him is a moron bullshit-artist pseudo-intellectual. I don’t know why you expect him to update on this in the next few years. Have you ever seen him change his mind in public?
Oh you are being much too charitable to Taleb here. I don’t think he spent 5 minutes thinking about the issue before confidently saying that everyone who disagrees with him is a moron bullshit-artist pseudo-intellectual. I don’t know why you expect him to update on this in the next few years. Have you ever seen him change his mind in public?