Agreed that the tradeoff of early feedback on partial ideas vs spending a LOT of time on a series only to find it’s not received well is difficult. Labeling something as tentative and partial helps a lot. Giving some outline of how it fits into an overall framework may or may not help.
Probably the biggest tactic I recommend is to use shortform for simple or untested ideas, then expand to a post if it gets good traction.
Also, I probably assume more readers accept the framework than they do. That prediction markets are worth using, that a market’s accuracy rises in a vaguely lognormal way with trading activity, and a random reader usually can’t beat it unless the market has few traders. I could try including a link to Scott Alexander making similar points for me.
Agreed that the tradeoff of early feedback on partial ideas vs spending a LOT of time on a series only to find it’s not received well is difficult. Labeling something as tentative and partial helps a lot. Giving some outline of how it fits into an overall framework may or may not help.
Probably the biggest tactic I recommend is to use shortform for simple or untested ideas, then expand to a post if it gets good traction.
Short forms it is! Thank you.
Also, I probably assume more readers accept the framework than they do. That prediction markets are worth using, that a market’s accuracy rises in a vaguely lognormal way with trading activity, and a random reader usually can’t beat it unless the market has few traders. I could try including a link to Scott Alexander making similar points for me.