Can you explain the terms “calibration guarantee”, and what “the resulting interval” is?
Also, I don’t understand why you say there is a 50% chance the data is not informative about mu. This is not a multi-modal distribution; it is blended from N(0,1) and N(mu,1). If mu can be any positive or negative number, then the one data point will tell you whether mu is positive or negative with probability 1.
Can you explain the terms “calibration guarantee”...
By “calibration guarantee” I mean valid confidence coverage: if I give a number of intervals at a stated confidence, then relative frequency with which the estimated quantities fall within the interval is guaranteed to approach the stated confidence as the number of estimated quantities grows. Here we might imagine a large number of mu parameters and one datum per parameter.
… and what “the resulting interval” is?
Not easily. The second cousin of this post (a reply to wedrifid) contains a link to a paper on arXiv that gives a bare-bones overview of how confidence intervals can be constructed on page 3. When you’ve got that far I can tell you what interval I have in mind.
Also, I don’t understand why you say there is a 50% chance the data is not informative about mu. This is not a multi-modal distribution; it is blended from N(0,1) and N(mu,1).
I think there’s been a misunderstanding somewhere. Let Z be a fair coin toss. If it comes up heads the datum is generated from N(0,1); if it comes up tails, the datum is generated from N(mu,1). Z is unobserved and mu is unknown. The probability distribution of the datum is as stated above. It will be multimodal if the absolute value of mu is greater than 2 (according to some quick plots I made; I did not do a mathematical proof).
If mu can be any positive or negative number, then the one data point will tell you whether mu is positive or negative with probability 1.
If I observe the datum 0.1, is mu greater than or less than 0?
Can you explain the terms “calibration guarantee”, and what “the resulting interval” is? Also, I don’t understand why you say there is a 50% chance the data is not informative about mu. This is not a multi-modal distribution; it is blended from N(0,1) and N(mu,1). If mu can be any positive or negative number, then the one data point will tell you whether mu is positive or negative with probability 1.
By “calibration guarantee” I mean valid confidence coverage: if I give a number of intervals at a stated confidence, then relative frequency with which the estimated quantities fall within the interval is guaranteed to approach the stated confidence as the number of estimated quantities grows. Here we might imagine a large number of mu parameters and one datum per parameter.
Not easily. The second cousin of this post (a reply to wedrifid) contains a link to a paper on arXiv that gives a bare-bones overview of how confidence intervals can be constructed on page 3. When you’ve got that far I can tell you what interval I have in mind.
I think there’s been a misunderstanding somewhere. Let Z be a fair coin toss. If it comes up heads the datum is generated from N(0,1); if it comes up tails, the datum is generated from N(mu,1). Z is unobserved and mu is unknown. The probability distribution of the datum is as stated above. It will be multimodal if the absolute value of mu is greater than 2 (according to some quick plots I made; I did not do a mathematical proof).
If I observe the datum 0.1, is mu greater than or less than 0?