You can actually simulate a tremendous number of distributions (and theoretically any to an arbitrary degree of accuracy) by doing an approximate inverse CDF applied to a standard uniform random variable see here for example. So the space of distributions from which you could select to do your test is potentially infinite. We can then think of your selection of a probability distribution as being a random experiment and model your selection process using a probability distribution.
The issue is that since the outcome space is the space of all computable probability distributions Bayesians will have consistency problems (another good paper on the topic is here), i.e. the posterior distribution won’t converge to the true distribution. So in this particular set up I think Bayesian methods are inferior unless one could devise a good prior over what distributions, I suppose if I knew that you didn’t know how to sample from arbitrary probability distributions then if I put that in my prior then I may be able to use Bayesian methods to successfully estimate the probability distribution (the discussion of the Bayesian who knew you personally was meant to be tongue-in-cheek).
In the frequentist case there is a known procedure due to Parzen from the 60′s .
All of these are asymptotic results, however, your experiment seems to be focused on very small samples. To the best of my knowledge there aren’t many results in this case except under special conditions. I would state that without more constraints on the experimental design I don’t think you’ll get very interesting results. Although I am actually really in favor of such evaluations because people in statistics and machine learning for a variety of reasons don’t do them, or don’t do them on a broad enough scale. Anyway if you actually are interested in such things you may want to start looking here, since statistics and machine learning both have the tools to properly design such experiments.
The small samples are a constraint imposed by the limits of blog comments; there’s a limit to how many numbers I would feel comfortable spamming this place with. If we got some volunteers, we might do a more serious sample size using hosted ROOT ntuples or zipping up some plain ASCII.
I do know how to sample from arbitrary distributions; I should have specified that the space of distributions is those for which I don’t have to think for more than a minute or so, or in other words, someone has already coded the CDF in a library I’ve already got installed. It’s not knowledge but work that’s the limiting factor. :) Presumably this limits your prior quite a lot already, there being only so many commonly used math libraries.
You can actually simulate a tremendous number of distributions (and theoretically any to an arbitrary degree of accuracy) by doing an approximate inverse CDF applied to a standard uniform random variable see here for example. So the space of distributions from which you could select to do your test is potentially infinite. We can then think of your selection of a probability distribution as being a random experiment and model your selection process using a probability distribution.
The issue is that since the outcome space is the space of all computable probability distributions Bayesians will have consistency problems (another good paper on the topic is here), i.e. the posterior distribution won’t converge to the true distribution. So in this particular set up I think Bayesian methods are inferior unless one could devise a good prior over what distributions, I suppose if I knew that you didn’t know how to sample from arbitrary probability distributions then if I put that in my prior then I may be able to use Bayesian methods to successfully estimate the probability distribution (the discussion of the Bayesian who knew you personally was meant to be tongue-in-cheek).
In the frequentist case there is a known procedure due to Parzen from the 60′s .
All of these are asymptotic results, however, your experiment seems to be focused on very small samples. To the best of my knowledge there aren’t many results in this case except under special conditions. I would state that without more constraints on the experimental design I don’t think you’ll get very interesting results. Although I am actually really in favor of such evaluations because people in statistics and machine learning for a variety of reasons don’t do them, or don’t do them on a broad enough scale. Anyway if you actually are interested in such things you may want to start looking here, since statistics and machine learning both have the tools to properly design such experiments.
The small samples are a constraint imposed by the limits of blog comments; there’s a limit to how many numbers I would feel comfortable spamming this place with. If we got some volunteers, we might do a more serious sample size using hosted ROOT ntuples or zipping up some plain ASCII.
I do know how to sample from arbitrary distributions; I should have specified that the space of distributions is those for which I don’t have to think for more than a minute or so, or in other words, someone has already coded the CDF in a library I’ve already got installed. It’s not knowledge but work that’s the limiting factor. :) Presumably this limits your prior quite a lot already, there being only so many commonly used math libraries.