My bid for forecasters: come up with conditional prediction questions to forecast likely impacts of potential US policies towards Ukraine. See this thread where I brainstorm potential such questions.
Challenges as I see it: figuring out which policies are live options, operationalizing, and figuring out good success/​failure metrics.
Benefits: potentially make policy more sane, or more realistically practice doing the sort of thing that might one day make policy more sane.
My bid for forecasters: come up with conditional prediction questions to forecast likely impacts of potential US policies towards Ukraine. See this thread where I brainstorm potential such questions.
Challenges as I see it: figuring out which policies are live options, operationalizing, and figuring out good success/​failure metrics.
Benefits: potentially make policy more sane, or more realistically practice doing the sort of thing that might one day make policy more sane.