In some ways, Eliezer is too hard on Traditional Rationalists (TRists). In the “wild and reckless youth” essay, which you cite, he focuses on how TR didn’t keep him from privileging a hypothesis and wasting years of his life on it.
But TR, as represented by people like Sagan and Feynman, does enjoin you to believe things only on the basis of good evidence. Eliezer makes it sound like you can believe whatever crazy hypothesis you want, as long as it’s naturalistic and in-principle-falsifiable, and as long as you don’t expect others to be convinced until you deliver good evidence. But there are plenty of TRists who would say that you ought not to be convinced yourself until your evidence is strong.
However, Eliezer still makes a very good point. This injunction doesn’t get you very far if you don’t know the right way to evaluate evidence as “strong”, or if you don’t have a systematic method for synthesizing all the different evidences to arrive at your conclusion. This is where TR falls down. It gives you an injunction, but it leaves too much of the details of how to fulfill the injunction up to gut instinct. So, Eliezer will be contributing something very valuable with his book.
Plus, the focus in TR on whether you ought to be convinced makes it seem like belief is binary. Under TR, you’re always asking yourself, “Is there enough evidence yet so that we ought to be convinced?” TRists will talk about probabilities and error bars, but there is an incomplete acknowledgement of the fact that you ought not to think in terms of thresholds of belief at all.
In some ways, Eliezer is too hard on Traditional Rationalists (TRists). In the “wild and reckless youth” essay, which you cite, he focuses on how TR didn’t keep him from privileging a hypothesis and wasting years of his life on it.
But TR, as represented by people like Sagan and Feynman, does enjoin you to believe things only on the basis of good evidence. Eliezer makes it sound like you can believe whatever crazy hypothesis you want, as long as it’s naturalistic and in-principle-falsifiable, and as long as you don’t expect others to be convinced until you deliver good evidence. But there are plenty of TRists who would say that you ought not to be convinced yourself until your evidence is strong.
However, Eliezer still makes a very good point. This injunction doesn’t get you very far if you don’t know the right way to evaluate evidence as “strong”, or if you don’t have a systematic method for synthesizing all the different evidences to arrive at your conclusion. This is where TR falls down. It gives you an injunction, but it leaves too much of the details of how to fulfill the injunction up to gut instinct. So, Eliezer will be contributing something very valuable with his book.
Plus, the focus in TR on whether you ought to be convinced makes it seem like belief is binary. Under TR, you’re always asking yourself, “Is there enough evidence yet so that we ought to be convinced?” TRists will talk about probabilities and error bars, but there is an incomplete acknowledgement of the fact that you ought not to think in terms of thresholds of belief at all.