I’m a bit confused where you’re getting your impression of the average person / American, but I’d be happy to bet on LLMs that are at least as capable as GPT3.5 being used (directly or indirectly) on at least a monthly basis by the majority of Americans within the next year?
How would you measure the usage? If, for example, Google integrates Bard into its main search engine, as they are rumored to be doing, would that count as usage? If so, I would agree with your assessment.
However, I disagree that this would be a “drastic” impact. A better Google search is nice, but it’s not life-changing in a way that would be noticed by someone who isn’t deeply aware of and interested in technology. It’s not like, e.g. Google Maps navigation suddenly allowing you to find your way around a strange city without having to buy any maps or decipher local road signs.
I’m specifically interested in finding something you’d be willing to bet on—I can’t find an existing manifold market, would you want to create one that you can decide? I’d be fine trusting your judgment.
I’m a bit confused where you’re getting your impression of the average person / American, but I’d be happy to bet on LLMs that are at least as capable as GPT3.5 being used (directly or indirectly) on at least a monthly basis by the majority of Americans within the next year?
How would you measure the usage? If, for example, Google integrates Bard into its main search engine, as they are rumored to be doing, would that count as usage? If so, I would agree with your assessment.
However, I disagree that this would be a “drastic” impact. A better Google search is nice, but it’s not life-changing in a way that would be noticed by someone who isn’t deeply aware of and interested in technology. It’s not like, e.g. Google Maps navigation suddenly allowing you to find your way around a strange city without having to buy any maps or decipher local road signs.
“Directly or indirectly” is a bit vague. Maybe make a market on Manifold if one doesn’t exist already.
I’m specifically interested in finding something you’d be willing to bet on—I can’t find an existing manifold market, would you want to create one that you can decide? I’d be fine trusting your judgment.