You have a point about the epistemology at work in the sciences. But the founders of this rationality movement actually think that they know better, that they are smarter than the average scientist, and that they can prognosticate probabilisitically about the future.
And really, I think that in this case, it isn’t too hard to be smarter than a scientist; scientists know a lot about science and mostly nothing about philosophy of science/epistemology. Scientists (especially biologists) mostly still work with a yes/no epistemology rather than a probabilistic one and so underperform versus a good probabilistic reasoner.
In areas like physics or biology, it is completely status-quo to believe nothing except that which has been shown by fairly direct evidence.
You have a point about the epistemology at work in the sciences. But the founders of this rationality movement actually think that they know better, that they are smarter than the average scientist, and that they can prognosticate probabilisitically about the future.
And really, I think that in this case, it isn’t too hard to be smarter than a scientist; scientists know a lot about science and mostly nothing about philosophy of science/epistemology. Scientists (especially biologists) mostly still work with a yes/no epistemology rather than a probabilistic one and so underperform versus a good probabilistic reasoner.