In comments on this thread, the issue of diet and “consensus” came up. Why I consider this topic important here, quite in line with what EY asserted in his post, is shown in this New York Times column by John Tierney.
The issue is not this or that alleged fact. (“Saturated Fat is Harmful,” or “Saturated Fat is Good” or even “We don’t know”) The issue is how we know what we know, and what we don’t know, and how individual and social fallacies lead to possible error.
Tierney writes about cascades, social phenomena that can afflict scientists, whom we might imagine would know better, creating the appearance of a “scientific consensus” that is not rooted in science and the scientific method.
Usually, most scientists get it right most of the time, but I’ve seen several such cascades create a false “scientific consensus” that is almost invulnerable, and it can take generations for that false consensus to unravel, so strong are the social mechanisms that maintain it. A few who are willing to risk their careers in pursuit of real science eventually prevail—the scientific method is ultimately powerful --, but the cost can be enormous to all of us in terms of poor decisions and delayed benefits.
We might consider creating some case studies. Unless we reach back to old controversies, these will be, by nature, controversial-in-the-present. The goal would not be an answer about “the truth.” The value would be in examining the reasoning, the sources and processes of what people (including experts) believe or trust.
Many people readily fix on conclusions, and politics (“importance”) easily leads to belief that anyone with a contrary conclusion—or even who only presents contrary evidence—is a positive danger, a menace to health or science, to be condemned and sanctioned.
In comments on this thread, the issue of diet and “consensus” came up. Why I consider this topic important here, quite in line with what EY asserted in his post, is shown in this New York Times column by John Tierney.
The issue is not this or that alleged fact. (“Saturated Fat is Harmful,” or “Saturated Fat is Good” or even “We don’t know”) The issue is how we know what we know, and what we don’t know, and how individual and social fallacies lead to possible error.
Tierney writes about cascades, social phenomena that can afflict scientists, whom we might imagine would know better, creating the appearance of a “scientific consensus” that is not rooted in science and the scientific method.
Usually, most scientists get it right most of the time, but I’ve seen several such cascades create a false “scientific consensus” that is almost invulnerable, and it can take generations for that false consensus to unravel, so strong are the social mechanisms that maintain it. A few who are willing to risk their careers in pursuit of real science eventually prevail—the scientific method is ultimately powerful --, but the cost can be enormous to all of us in terms of poor decisions and delayed benefits.
We might consider creating some case studies. Unless we reach back to old controversies, these will be, by nature, controversial-in-the-present. The goal would not be an answer about “the truth.” The value would be in examining the reasoning, the sources and processes of what people (including experts) believe or trust.
Many people readily fix on conclusions, and politics (“importance”) easily leads to belief that anyone with a contrary conclusion—or even who only presents contrary evidence—is a positive danger, a menace to health or science, to be condemned and sanctioned.