The idea that if Ukraine only manages to retake all its former territory that means it’s safe from future attacks from Russia is faulty especially if there’s a lot of resistance in Crimea to Ukrainian rule.
The idea that if Ukraine make a peace deal with Russia means it’s safe from future attacks from Russia is even more faulty. In fact Ukraine made a peace deal with Russia in 2015. And I’m not even talking about Budapest Memorandum.
I think if you believe that the borders of Ukraine don’t matter and what matters is nuclear risk, then it’s useful to be able to make a peace deal that does not back Putin into a corner where using nuclear weapons is the only thing that might keep him in power.
Borders don’t matter in and of themselves. But they matter to Putin. Somewhat. Therefore they can be used as a tool to prevent him from being encouraged to continue his conquest.
In fact Ukraine made a peace deal with Russia in 2015.
They didn’t. They made a ceasefire agreement. Then they wanted to pass laws to do what the ceasefire agreement calls for and then there was the episode with the grenade in front of the Ukrainian parliament and they didn’t pass laws.
Therefore they can be used as a tool to prevent him from being encouraged to continue his conquest.
Taking territory against the will of the local population is hard and painful as the Soviets learned in Afghanistan and the US in Iraq and Afghanistan as well. This whole episode should be good in showing that the Russian army is not capable of doing that.
Reducing the amount of territory that could be taken with the support of the local population discourages conquest.
The idea that Putin would just accept Crimea as being Ukrainian without planning another attack to take it back seems strange to me.
The idea that Putin would just accept Crimea as being Ukrainian without planning another attack to take it back seems strange to me.
He won’t. I don’t even know if retaking Crimea is a wise strategy. Ukrainian military may well decide to not proceed to Crimea because of nuclear risk. My point was that any attempt at peace without Putin giving up something of value would play directly into his hands.
The idea that if Ukraine make a peace deal with Russia means it’s safe from future attacks from Russia is even more faulty. In fact Ukraine made a peace deal with Russia in 2015. And I’m not even talking about Budapest Memorandum.
Borders don’t matter in and of themselves. But they matter to Putin. Somewhat. Therefore they can be used as a tool to prevent him from being encouraged to continue his conquest.
They didn’t. They made a ceasefire agreement. Then they wanted to pass laws to do what the ceasefire agreement calls for and then there was the episode with the grenade in front of the Ukrainian parliament and they didn’t pass laws.
Taking territory against the will of the local population is hard and painful as the Soviets learned in Afghanistan and the US in Iraq and Afghanistan as well. This whole episode should be good in showing that the Russian army is not capable of doing that.
Reducing the amount of territory that could be taken with the support of the local population discourages conquest.
The idea that Putin would just accept Crimea as being Ukrainian without planning another attack to take it back seems strange to me.
He won’t. I don’t even know if retaking Crimea is a wise strategy. Ukrainian military may well decide to not proceed to Crimea because of nuclear risk. My point was that any attempt at peace without Putin giving up something of value would play directly into his hands.