Sanctions are of 2 types: strategical and moral. The first kind are aimed at stopping an adversary from being able to produce vital stuff, like the recent chip embargo on China. These are often quite effective at producing an effect, as can be seen in how Russia is having massive logistical problems and having to pull out old Soviet tanks, rather than producing new one. The second kind are to show people that you’re Doing Something and that you are Very Serious. These are very much less effective. Though they’re aimed at appeasing the people at home, rather than changing how a foreign actor acts. The current sanctions are a big bag of both kinds, some of which are in fact quite successful at what they’re supposed to do, i.e. make it harder for the Russians to wage war.
Russia has an interesting history of loosing wars to embarrassingly weaker opponents, which then trigger deep changes. Not that it’s a rule or anything, but it is suggestive. Though frankly I’m not sure if I’d prefer someone other than Putin in charge of the nukes. He at least seems rational, albeit working under the wrong assumptions.
I agree, though sanctions are always sold as being strategic even when they are moral.
The fact that Putin has not used nukes yet is to his credit, but I do think that there is a marked shift in his demeanor from how would sound in speeches before to now. Make of that what you will.
Sanctions are of 2 types: strategical and moral. The first kind are aimed at stopping an adversary from being able to produce vital stuff, like the recent chip embargo on China. These are often quite effective at producing an effect, as can be seen in how Russia is having massive logistical problems and having to pull out old Soviet tanks, rather than producing new one. The second kind are to show people that you’re Doing Something and that you are Very Serious. These are very much less effective. Though they’re aimed at appeasing the people at home, rather than changing how a foreign actor acts. The current sanctions are a big bag of both kinds, some of which are in fact quite successful at what they’re supposed to do, i.e. make it harder for the Russians to wage war.
Russia has an interesting history of loosing wars to embarrassingly weaker opponents, which then trigger deep changes. Not that it’s a rule or anything, but it is suggestive. Though frankly I’m not sure if I’d prefer someone other than Putin in charge of the nukes. He at least seems rational, albeit working under the wrong assumptions.
I agree, though sanctions are always sold as being strategic even when they are moral.
The fact that Putin has not used nukes yet is to his credit, but I do think that there is a marked shift in his demeanor from how would sound in speeches before to now. Make of that what you will.