This is a good point, I have been using that term very loosely. I guess what I mean is a massive loss of support and legitimacy, as we have indeed seen already. I agree that for a dictator this probably means a shift to a more authoritarian style before it means being ousted, and that the likelihood of a coup depends in large part on things like palace security.
North Korea is indeed a chilling example, and Russia’s new economic reality has already been widely compared to North Korea in mainstream media. I think Russia has enough widespread internet access, and not enough Putin-worship for the comparison to hold very far, but it can indeed get very ugly in the meantime.
As for that prediction market, that looks low to me, considering how it’s worded. I’d expect at least that much chance of Putin dying a natural death before 2024, and that might well be described as a “regime change” by popular media, so that leaves no room for a coup. Also the fine print stating that it doesn’t count if Putin “voluntarily resigns”, is very vague, and indeed a way he might try to make it look if he sees that he is loosing power. Still I’m updating some.
This is a good point, I have been using that term very loosely. I guess what I mean is a massive loss of support and legitimacy, as we have indeed seen already. I agree that for a dictator this probably means a shift to a more authoritarian style before it means being ousted, and that the likelihood of a coup depends in large part on things like palace security.
North Korea is indeed a chilling example, and Russia’s new economic reality has already been widely compared to North Korea in mainstream media. I think Russia has enough widespread internet access, and not enough Putin-worship for the comparison to hold very far, but it can indeed get very ugly in the meantime.
As for that prediction market, that looks low to me, considering how it’s worded. I’d expect at least that much chance of Putin dying a natural death before 2024, and that might well be described as a “regime change” by popular media, so that leaves no room for a coup. Also the fine print stating that it doesn’t count if Putin “voluntarily resigns”, is very vague, and indeed a way he might try to make it look if he sees that he is loosing power. Still I’m updating some.