I’m confused by this graph. Why is there no US non-race timeline? Or is that supposed to be MAGIC? If so, why is it so much farther behind than the PRC non-race timeline?
Also, the US race and PRC race shouldn’t be independent distributions. A still inaccurate but better model would be to use the same distribution for USA and then have PRC be e.g. 1 year behind +/- some normally distributed noise with mean 0 and SD 1 year.
I didn’t include a US non-race timeline because I was assuming that “we” is the US and can mainly only causally influence what the US does. (This is not strictly true, but I think it’s true enough).
I read the MAGIC paper, and my impression is that it would be an international project, in which the US might play a large role. But my impression is also that MAGIC would be very willing to cause large delays in the development of TAI in order to ensure safety, which is why I added 20 years to the timeline. I think that a non-racing US would be still much faster than that, because they are less concerned with safety/less bureaucratic/willing to externalize costs on the world.
Also, the US race and PRC race shouldn’t be independent distributions. A still inaccurate but better model would be to use the same distribution for USA and then have PRC be e.g. 1 year behind +/- some normally distributed noise with mean 0 and SD 1 year.
Hm. That does sound like a much better way of modeling the situation, thanks! I’ll put it on my TODO list to change this. That would at least decrease variance, right?
I’m confused by this graph. Why is there no US non-race timeline? Or is that supposed to be MAGIC? If so, why is it so much farther behind than the PRC non-race timeline?
Also, the US race and PRC race shouldn’t be independent distributions. A still inaccurate but better model would be to use the same distribution for USA and then have PRC be e.g. 1 year behind +/- some normally distributed noise with mean 0 and SD 1 year.
I didn’t include a US non-race timeline because I was assuming that “we” is the US and can mainly only causally influence what the US does. (This is not strictly true, but I think it’s true enough).
I read the MAGIC paper, and my impression is that it would be an international project, in which the US might play a large role. But my impression is also that MAGIC would be very willing to cause large delays in the development of TAI in order to ensure safety, which is why I added 20 years to the timeline. I think that a non-racing US would be still much faster than that, because they are less concerned with safety/less bureaucratic/willing to externalize costs on the world.
Hm. That does sound like a much better way of modeling the situation, thanks! I’ll put it on my TODO list to change this. That would at least decrease variance, right?