I am sensing some implicit if not explicit claims that rationalists believe in Hollywood Rationality instead of Actual Rationality. To be clear, that is untrue.
possibly, but is that not basically a No True Rationalist trick? I do not see a way for us to truly check that, unless we capture LW rationalists one by one and test them, but even then, what is preventing you from claiming: “eh, maybe this particular person is not a Real Rationalist but a Nerdy Hollywood Rationalist, but the others are the real deal,” ad nauseam?
I definitely agree that people who consider themselves Rationalists believe themselves to be Actual Rationalists not Hollywood Rationalists. This of course leads us to the much analyzed question of “why aren’t Rationalists winning?” The answers I see is that either Rationality does not lead to Winning, Or the Rationalists aren’t Actual Rationalists (yet, or at all, or at least not sufficiently).
A major case in point is that Rationalists mostly failed to convince the world about the threat posed by unrestricted AI. This means that either Rationalists are wrong about the AI threat, or bad at convincing. The second option is more likely I think, and I wager the reason Rationalists have a hard time convincing the general public is not because the logic of the argument is faulty, but because the delivery is based on clunky rhetoric and shows no attempts at well engineered charisma.
I’m not sure if this addresses all of the things you’re saying. If not, let me know.
I’m not claiming that all or even most rationalists actually are successful in leaning closer to Real Rationality than Hollywood Rationality. I’m claiming that a very large majority 1) endorse and 2) aspire towards the former rather than the latter.
Incremental Progress and the Valley talks about the relationship between rationality and winning. In short, what the post says and what I think the majority opinion amongst rationalists is, is that in the long run it does bring you closer to winning, but 1) a given step forward towards being more rational sometimes moves you a step back in towards on winning rather than forward, and 2) we’re not really at the point in our art where it leads to a sizeable increase in winning.
As for convincing people about the threat of AI:
1) I don’t thing the art of rationality has spent too much time on persuasion, compared to, say, probability theory.
2) I think there’s been some amount of effort put towards persuasion. People reference Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini a fair bit).
3) People very much care about anything even remotely relevant to lowering the chance of unfriendly AI or any other existential risk and will be extremely open to any ideas you or others have on how to do better.
4) There very well might be some somewhat low hanging fruit in terms of being better at persuading others in the context of AI risk.
5) Convincing people about the importance is a pretty difficult thing, and so lack of success very well might be more about difficulty than competence.
I am sensing some implicit if not explicit claims that rationalists believe in Hollywood Rationality instead of Actual Rationality. To be clear, that is untrue.
possibly, but is that not basically a No True Rationalist trick? I do not see a way for us to truly check that, unless we capture LW rationalists one by one and test them, but even then, what is preventing you from claiming: “eh, maybe this particular person is not a Real Rationalist but a Nerdy Hollywood Rationalist, but the others are the real deal,” ad nauseam?
I definitely agree that people who consider themselves Rationalists believe themselves to be Actual Rationalists not Hollywood Rationalists. This of course leads us to the much analyzed question of “why aren’t Rationalists winning?” The answers I see is that either Rationality does not lead to Winning, Or the Rationalists aren’t Actual Rationalists (yet, or at all, or at least not sufficiently).
A major case in point is that Rationalists mostly failed to convince the world about the threat posed by unrestricted AI. This means that either Rationalists are wrong about the AI threat, or bad at convincing. The second option is more likely I think, and I wager the reason Rationalists have a hard time convincing the general public is not because the logic of the argument is faulty, but because the delivery is based on clunky rhetoric and shows no attempts at well engineered charisma.
I’m not sure if this addresses all of the things you’re saying. If not, let me know.
I’m not claiming that all or even most rationalists actually are successful in leaning closer to Real Rationality than Hollywood Rationality. I’m claiming that a very large majority 1) endorse and 2) aspire towards the former rather than the latter.
Incremental Progress and the Valley talks about the relationship between rationality and winning. In short, what the post says and what I think the majority opinion amongst rationalists is, is that in the long run it does bring you closer to winning, but 1) a given step forward towards being more rational sometimes moves you a step back in towards on winning rather than forward, and 2) we’re not really at the point in our art where it leads to a sizeable increase in winning.
As for convincing people about the threat of AI:
1) I don’t thing the art of rationality has spent too much time on persuasion, compared to, say, probability theory.
2) I think there’s been some amount of effort put towards persuasion. People reference Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini a fair bit).
3) People very much care about anything even remotely relevant to lowering the chance of unfriendly AI or any other existential risk and will be extremely open to any ideas you or others have on how to do better.
4) There very well might be some somewhat low hanging fruit in terms of being better at persuading others in the context of AI risk.
5) Convincing people about the importance is a pretty difficult thing, and so lack of success very well might be more about difficulty than competence.