I expect climate wars to happen in the 20-30 year time frame, and the beneficiaries will be those living further north and able to fend for themselves and fend off the rest of the horde. It is really hard to prepare for something like that, other than learning survival skills and people skills, since controlling people will be more important than anything else.
Also, I think you might have meant exponential when you said logarithmic.
Which countries will go to war with who? Doesn’t strike me as plausible that, eg, individual random countries in the tropics would literally declare war on much-richer countries far away.
I think you are confusing the interests of citizens in the tropics (who might be motivated to immigrate from eg the Middle East to Europe, or from Indonesia to New Zealand, or from Venezuela to Uruguay, just as the poor are always motivated to move to more prosperous lands) with diplomacy—why would the leaders of places like Indonesia declare war on places like New Zealand? We don’t see countries in Central America trying to declare war on the USA today.
I never said it would be countries declaring wars. The reality will be a lot messier. People will get desperate and just go where they can survive. Imagine Mexicans trying to cross the US border, multiplied by 1000 times or more, all over the world. Can Canada accept tens of millions of refugees from the US? Can Russia deal with untold millions of Chinese, Indians and others trying to escape to the North?
You didn’t say countries declaring wars but you called them climate wars, wouldn’t it be easier and classier to admit a mistake with your word choice? Nevertheless, I do agree with you in fact with a scenario like this
Good points. I think of investing in skills, physical survival goods, or a resilient dwelling as possible choices. For climate this might be building an underground house in the north, in an area predicted to be wetter and warmer in the future.
Yeah, exponential is what I mean.
I expect climate wars to happen in the 20-30 year time frame, and the beneficiaries will be those living further north and able to fend for themselves and fend off the rest of the horde. It is really hard to prepare for something like that, other than learning survival skills and people skills, since controlling people will be more important than anything else.
Also, I think you might have meant exponential when you said logarithmic.
Which countries will go to war with who? Doesn’t strike me as plausible that, eg, individual random countries in the tropics would literally declare war on much-richer countries far away.
I think you are confusing the interests of citizens in the tropics (who might be motivated to immigrate from eg the Middle East to Europe, or from Indonesia to New Zealand, or from Venezuela to Uruguay, just as the poor are always motivated to move to more prosperous lands) with diplomacy—why would the leaders of places like Indonesia declare war on places like New Zealand? We don’t see countries in Central America trying to declare war on the USA today.
I never said it would be countries declaring wars. The reality will be a lot messier. People will get desperate and just go where they can survive. Imagine Mexicans trying to cross the US border, multiplied by 1000 times or more, all over the world. Can Canada accept tens of millions of refugees from the US? Can Russia deal with untold millions of Chinese, Indians and others trying to escape to the North?
You didn’t say countries declaring wars but you called them climate wars, wouldn’t it be easier and classier to admit a mistake with your word choice? Nevertheless, I do agree with you in fact with a scenario like this
What terminology would you use instead?
Crisis. Upheaval
Conflicts
Special operation.
I am an Indian, do you think migrating Northwards should be a priority?
It would be for me
Well, a way to prepare for that is moving to a northern country for starters!
Good points. I think of investing in skills, physical survival goods, or a resilient dwelling as possible choices. For climate this might be building an underground house in the north, in an area predicted to be wetter and warmer in the future. Yeah, exponential is what I mean.