If you don’t know who this guy is he is a historian who writes about the future (among other things).
I’m 68 and retired. I’ve seen some changes. Investing in companies like Xerox and Kodak would have made sense early in my career. Would have been a bad idea in the long run. The companies that would have made sense to invest in didn’t exist yet.
I started my IT career in 1980 running an IBM mainframe the size of a semi-trailer while its peripherals took up an entire floor. Almost no one but hobbyists owned a PC and the internet did not exist as far as the public was concerned. Cell phones only existed in science fiction. In less than twenty years, by 2000, it was a radically different world.
All my life I’ve been interested in the human story, reading widely about evolution, civilization, the arts and sciences. Never before have I seen so many signs that things are about to change dramatically.
It’s only human to try to do so but I don’t believe you are going to be able to “figure this out”. I suggest an analogy like the difference between an expert system and AlphaGo. The latter wins by learning, not by knowing a bunch of facts and rules. That’s why I suggest this video. He talks about how to think about the future.
When I retired, I thought about what to do. I had a lifetime’s worth of knowledge in my head so I decided to write hard science fiction about the near future, 2025-2325. It’s very difficult. Will the idea of cell phones be laughable in 2125? How long will it take for an AI to do a comparative analysis of two genomes in 2075? How will a population of eleven billion by 2100 change the world? Forget about 2100 - how will AI, climate change and geopolitics change the world by 2030?
Currently I’m writing a story about two students in a Masters Of Futures Studies program. They get a wild idea and the story follows their escapades. Futures Studies is not a mature science (if it even is a science) but it is a methodology used by major corporations and governments to plan for the future. Organizations like Shell Oil (Futures Studies aka Foresight was known as Scenario Planning there), the US military and the country of Finland among others use it and the stakes are pretty high for them.
As I write hard science fiction, I have to do a ton of research on whatever I’m writing about be it genetics, human values, AI or what have you. So I am aware that unfortunately if you investigate Futures Studies you will encounter a lot of consultants who sound very woo-woo. But once you sort the wheat from the chaff there is a solid methodology underlying the discipline. It’s not perfect (who can predict the future?) but it’s as close to rigorous as you’ll get.
Here is a easily understandable explanation of the process by the person whom I have found to be the best communicator in the business.
It’s a lot I admit but is it worth your time? Think of it as an investment.
It is a highly collaborative process so maybe get a group of like minded friends together and try it. There’s no peer review process in Futures Studies. That issue is dealt with by the number of people you have involved.
TL;DR Watch this video …
or read the list of summary points for the book here
https://medium.com/steveglaveski/book-summary-21-lessons-for-the-21st-century-by-yuval-noah-harari-73722006805a
If you don’t know who this guy is he is a historian who writes about the future (among other things).
I’m 68 and retired. I’ve seen some changes. Investing in companies like Xerox and Kodak would have made sense early in my career. Would have been a bad idea in the long run. The companies that would have made sense to invest in didn’t exist yet.
I started my IT career in 1980 running an IBM mainframe the size of a semi-trailer while its peripherals took up an entire floor. Almost no one but hobbyists owned a PC and the internet did not exist as far as the public was concerned. Cell phones only existed in science fiction. In less than twenty years, by 2000, it was a radically different world.
All my life I’ve been interested in the human story, reading widely about evolution, civilization, the arts and sciences. Never before have I seen so many signs that things are about to change dramatically.
It’s only human to try to do so but I don’t believe you are going to be able to “figure this out”. I suggest an analogy like the difference between an expert system and AlphaGo. The latter wins by learning, not by knowing a bunch of facts and rules. That’s why I suggest this video. He talks about how to think about the future.
When I retired, I thought about what to do. I had a lifetime’s worth of knowledge in my head so I decided to write hard science fiction about the near future, 2025-2325. It’s very difficult. Will the idea of cell phones be laughable in 2125? How long will it take for an AI to do a comparative analysis of two genomes in 2075? How will a population of eleven billion by 2100 change the world? Forget about 2100 - how will AI, climate change and geopolitics change the world by 2030?
Currently I’m writing a story about two students in a Masters Of Futures Studies program. They get a wild idea and the story follows their escapades. Futures Studies is not a mature science (if it even is a science) but it is a methodology used by major corporations and governments to plan for the future. Organizations like Shell Oil (Futures Studies aka Foresight was known as Scenario Planning there), the US military and the country of Finland among others use it and the stakes are pretty high for them.
As I write hard science fiction, I have to do a ton of research on whatever I’m writing about be it genetics, human values, AI or what have you. So I am aware that unfortunately if you investigate Futures Studies you will encounter a lot of consultants who sound very woo-woo. But once you sort the wheat from the chaff there is a solid methodology underlying the discipline. It’s not perfect (who can predict the future?) but it’s as close to rigorous as you’ll get.
Here is a easily understandable explanation of the process by the person whom I have found to be the best communicator in the business.
Here’s the Wikipedia page about Futures Studies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies
And here’s a PDF explaining the methodology as it is generally applied
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/674209/futures-toolkit-edition-1.pdf
It’s a lot I admit but is it worth your time? Think of it as an investment.
It is a highly collaborative process so maybe get a group of like minded friends together and try it. There’s no peer review process in Futures Studies. That issue is dealt with by the number of people you have involved.
Best of luck.