I think it’s unlikely we get there in the foreseeable future, with the current paradigms
It would be nice if you could define “foreseeable future”. 3 years? 10 years? 30? 100? 1000? What?
And I’m not sure why “with the current paradigms” is in that sentence. The post you’re responding to is “Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk”, not “Ten arguments that Multimodal Large Language Models are an existential risk”, right?
If your assumption is that “the current paradigms” will remain the current paradigms for the “foreseeable future”, then you should say that, and explain why you think so. It seems to me that the paradigm in AI has had quite a bit of change in the last 6 years (i.e. since 2018, before GPT-2, i.e. a time when few had heard of LLMs), and has had complete wrenching change in the last 20 years (i.e. since 2004, many years before AlexNet, and a time when deep learning as a whole was still an obscure backwater, if I understand correctly). So by the same token, it’s plausible that the field of AI might have quite a bit of change in the next 6 years, and complete wrenching change in the next 20 years, right?
It would be nice if you could define “foreseeable future”. 3 years? 10 years? 30? 100? 1000? What?
And I’m not sure why “with the current paradigms” is in that sentence. The post you’re responding to is “Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk”, not “Ten arguments that Multimodal Large Language Models are an existential risk”, right?
If your assumption is that “the current paradigms” will remain the current paradigms for the “foreseeable future”, then you should say that, and explain why you think so. It seems to me that the paradigm in AI has had quite a bit of change in the last 6 years (i.e. since 2018, before GPT-2, i.e. a time when few had heard of LLMs), and has had complete wrenching change in the last 20 years (i.e. since 2004, many years before AlexNet, and a time when deep learning as a whole was still an obscure backwater, if I understand correctly). So by the same token, it’s plausible that the field of AI might have quite a bit of change in the next 6 years, and complete wrenching change in the next 20 years, right?