On the one hand, no. I suspect building a better than human intelligence to be much harder than we imagine. It has been much harder than we imagined in the past. I don’t see any reason to think we have passed some inflection point where our understanding is just so good that progress from now on will be qualitiatively better than in the past.
On the other hand, we already have a self-improving intelligence, but it is only partially artificial. It seems clear to me that the intelligence of the human race as a whole is taking off quickly as our technology of tying brains together to work cooperatively improves. Probably the last “natural” improvement was the evolution of the ability to use spoken language to increase the bandwidth of inter-brain communication by orders of mangitude. Since then the artificial improvements include recording devices (starting with writing), communication devices (starting with books on boats). With the internet and fantastic interfaces to it, we know have a fantastically complex inter-brain communication. Amazingly, a big part of it is still intermediated through our fingers, which seems likely to me to change soon for the better.
What is the IQ of the planet as a whole? Whatever the answer, the planet with books was smarter than the planet without them, and the planet with internet is pretty remarkable indeed.
On the one hand, no. I suspect building a better than human intelligence to be much harder than we imagine. It has been much harder than we imagined in the past. I don’t see any reason to think we have passed some inflection point where our understanding is just so good that progress from now on will be qualitiatively better than in the past.
On the other hand, we already have a self-improving intelligence, but it is only partially artificial. It seems clear to me that the intelligence of the human race as a whole is taking off quickly as our technology of tying brains together to work cooperatively improves. Probably the last “natural” improvement was the evolution of the ability to use spoken language to increase the bandwidth of inter-brain communication by orders of mangitude. Since then the artificial improvements include recording devices (starting with writing), communication devices (starting with books on boats). With the internet and fantastic interfaces to it, we know have a fantastically complex inter-brain communication. Amazingly, a big part of it is still intermediated through our fingers, which seems likely to me to change soon for the better.
What is the IQ of the planet as a whole? Whatever the answer, the planet with books was smarter than the planet without them, and the planet with internet is pretty remarkable indeed.
While I understand your desire to correct for Optimism Bias, aren’t you making a fully general counterargument?
Am I arguing? I thought I was just saying what I think for what that is worth or not worth.