You severely overestimate your chance of actually murdering someone. Lets go through the numbers. Lets be generous and assume a 10% chance that you are an asymptomatic carrier. If you are, you have no more than 50% chance of infecting someone even if you don’t wear a mask, so lets say with mask properly worn that is reduced to 30%. Now you are already down to 3% chance of infecting any person you encounter. Now, for you 80+ year old neighbor the chance of actually dying from infection is around 5%. So multiply your 3% chance of infecting the neighbor by 5% chance of death and you get 0.15% chance of murdering a person of advanced age. You’d need to encounter 7 of them to get to 1% chance of murder.
Ignoring the fact this is then contagious from the people you infect (regardless of age) and also the number of people encountered doesn’t seem like the most helpful napkin numbers for strategy against a contagious illness.
I really appreciate this comment. I just want that good cautious people quit thinking themselves already guilty of manslaughter let alone murder. Just continue to be good cautious people.
Infecting a reckless superspreader who will give it to everyone he meets did not occur to me.
Paraphrasing a famous writer, the evil may triumph but not through me.
Which is still a huge probability. That being said, the precautions to prevent murdering others are exactly the same precautions that would reduce my probability of getting sick in the first place.
You severely overestimate your chance of actually murdering someone. Lets go through the numbers. Lets be generous and assume a 10% chance that you are an asymptomatic carrier. If you are, you have no more than 50% chance of infecting someone even if you don’t wear a mask, so lets say with mask properly worn that is reduced to 30%. Now you are already down to 3% chance of infecting any person you encounter. Now, for you 80+ year old neighbor the chance of actually dying from infection is around 5%. So multiply your 3% chance of infecting the neighbor by 5% chance of death and you get 0.15% chance of murdering a person of advanced age. You’d need to encounter 7 of them to get to 1% chance of murder.
Ignoring the fact this is then contagious from the people you infect (regardless of age) and also the number of people encountered doesn’t seem like the most helpful napkin numbers for strategy against a contagious illness.
I really appreciate this comment. I just want that good cautious people quit thinking themselves already guilty of manslaughter let alone murder. Just continue to be good cautious people.
Infecting a reckless superspreader who will give it to everyone he meets did not occur to me.
Paraphrasing a famous writer, the evil may triumph but not through me.
Which is still a huge probability. That being said, the precautions to prevent murdering others are exactly the same precautions that would reduce my probability of getting sick in the first place.