I find it interesting that you consider “will likely” to be an example of “very confident”, whereas I’m using that specifically to indicate uncertainty, as in “X is likely” implies a bit over 50% odds on some cluster of ideas vs others (contingent on some context), but very far from certainty or high confidence.
This is a common failure mode when communicating uncertainty. If you think of likely as meaning some very specific probability range, and you think it matters in that instance, use that probability range instead. People’s perception of what “probable” means ranges from around 20 to 80% iirc from reading Tetlocks Superforcasting. If you need more evidence: this is easily verified by just asking 2-3 people what they think what “likely” means.
This is a common failure mode when communicating uncertainty. If you think of likely as meaning some very specific probability range, and you think it matters in that instance, use that probability range instead. People’s perception of what “probable” means ranges from around 20 to 80% iirc from reading Tetlocks Superforcasting. If you need more evidence: this is easily verified by just asking 2-3 people what they think what “likely” means.