Prediction markets could create inadvertent assassination markets. No ill intention is needed.
Suppose we have fully functional prediction markets working for years or decades. The obvious idiots already lost most of their money (or learned to avoid prediction markets), most bets are made by smart players. Many of those smart players are probably not individuals, but something like hedge funds—people making bets with insane amounts of money, backed by large corporations, probably having hundreds of experts at their disposal.
Now imagine that something like COVID-19 happened, and people made bets on when it will end. The market aggregated all knowledge currently available to the humankind, and specified the date almost exactly, most of the bets are only a week or two away from each other.
Then someone unexpectedly finds a miracle cure.
Oops, now we have people and corporations whose insane amounts of money are at risk… unless an accident would happen to the lucky researcher.
The stock market is already a prediction market and there’s potentially profit to be made by assignating a CEO of a company. We don’t see that happening much.
Then someone unexpectedly finds a miracle cure.
Oops, now we have people and corporations whose insane amounts of money are at risk… unless an accident would happen to the lucky researcher.
Taffix might very well be a miracle treatment that prevents people from getting infected by COVID19 if used properly.
We live in an enviroment where already nobody listens to people providing supplements like that and people like Winfried Stoecker get persecuted instead of getting support to get their treatment to people.
Given that it takens 8-9 figures to provide the evidence for any miracle cure to be taken seriously, it’s not something that someone can just unexpectactedly find in a way that moves existing markets in the short term.
Prediction markets could create inadvertent assassination markets. No ill intention is needed.
Suppose we have fully functional prediction markets working for years or decades. The obvious idiots already lost most of their money (or learned to avoid prediction markets), most bets are made by smart players. Many of those smart players are probably not individuals, but something like hedge funds—people making bets with insane amounts of money, backed by large corporations, probably having hundreds of experts at their disposal.
Now imagine that something like COVID-19 happened, and people made bets on when it will end. The market aggregated all knowledge currently available to the humankind, and specified the date almost exactly, most of the bets are only a week or two away from each other.
Then someone unexpectedly finds a miracle cure.
Oops, now we have people and corporations whose insane amounts of money are at risk… unless an accident would happen to the lucky researcher.
The stock market is already a prediction market and there’s potentially profit to be made by assignating a CEO of a company. We don’t see that happening much.
Taffix might very well be a miracle treatment that prevents people from getting infected by COVID19 if used properly.
We live in an enviroment where already nobody listens to people providing supplements like that and people like Winfried Stoecker get persecuted instead of getting support to get their treatment to people.
Given that it takens 8-9 figures to provide the evidence for any miracle cure to be taken seriously, it’s not something that someone can just unexpectactedly find in a way that moves existing markets in the short term.