The Manhattan Project is a very misleading example. Yes, it was “secret”, in that nothing was published for outside review. But the project had a sizeable fraction of all the physics talent in the western world associated with it. Within the project, there was a great deal of information sharing and discussion; the scientific leadership was strongly against “need to know policies.”
At that scale, having outside review is a lot less necessary. Nobody in AI research is contemplating an effort of that scale, so the objection to secrecy is valid.
Also, the Manhattan project did a poor job of maintaining total secrecy. Reliably secret projects are possible only on a much smaller scale, and the likelihood of information leaking out grows very rapidly as soon as more than a handful of people are involved.
The Manhattan project was facing a huge coordinated enemy who could pay spies, etc. SingInst isn’t facing such an enemy yet, so secrecy should be easier for them.
Actually, most of the WW2-era Soviet spies were communists who spied out of genuine conviction, not as paid traitors. This makes the parallel even more interesting, considering that people engaged in a secret AI project might develop all sorts of qualms.
Thanks, that’s a new point to me. But it’s not always true, remember the Manhattan project.
The Manhattan Project is a very misleading example. Yes, it was “secret”, in that nothing was published for outside review. But the project had a sizeable fraction of all the physics talent in the western world associated with it. Within the project, there was a great deal of information sharing and discussion; the scientific leadership was strongly against “need to know policies.”
At that scale, having outside review is a lot less necessary. Nobody in AI research is contemplating an effort of that scale, so the objection to secrecy is valid.
Also, the Manhattan project did a poor job of maintaining total secrecy. Reliably secret projects are possible only on a much smaller scale, and the likelihood of information leaking out grows very rapidly as soon as more than a handful of people are involved.
The Manhattan project was facing a huge coordinated enemy who could pay spies, etc. SingInst isn’t facing such an enemy yet, so secrecy should be easier for them.
Actually, most of the WW2-era Soviet spies were communists who spied out of genuine conviction, not as paid traitors. This makes the parallel even more interesting, considering that people engaged in a secret AI project might develop all sorts of qualms.