To ensure that bettors approximately truthfully report their odds about P after the horizon of 5 years, the contract requires A and B to report their odds to a trusted intermediary (who announces these odds simultaneously), and requires either party to accept any follow-up bets at (some function of) these reported credences.
Are you thinking of requiring each party to accept bets on either side? And including from other parties, or only with each other? Being forced to bet both sides could ensure honesty, assuming they haven’t found other bets on the same or highly correlated outcomes they can use for arbitrage.
Are you thinking of requiring each party to accept bets on either side?
Being forced to bet both sides could ensure honesty, assuming they haven’t found other bets on the same or highly correlated outcomes they can use for arbitrage.
Yes. Good point.
And including from other parties, or only with each other?
I was thinking that betting would be restricted to the initial two parties (i.e. A and B), but I can imagine an alternative in which it’s unrestricted.
Are you thinking of requiring each party to accept bets on either side? And including from other parties, or only with each other? Being forced to bet both sides could ensure honesty, assuming they haven’t found other bets on the same or highly correlated outcomes they can use for arbitrage.
Yes. Good point.
I was thinking that betting would be restricted to the initial two parties (i.e. A and B), but I can imagine an alternative in which it’s unrestricted.