Anything predicated on “true odds” that are different from “odds actually encoded in wagers” is going to fail. The whole reason any bet is available is because people’s beliefs (“true odds”) differ. And in many (MANY!) cases, each believes the other to be at least somewhat irrational, or at least weighting evidence incorrectly. Why would we expect such a counterparty to get closer to truth over time, for a proposition that isn’t testable inside a reasonable time window?
A much better mechanism is to dive into cruxes and agree on shorter-term outcomes that you have different predictions for, based on your models. Bet on those.
Anything predicated on “true odds” that are different from “odds actually encoded in wagers” is going to fail. The whole reason any bet is available is because people’s beliefs (“true odds”) differ. And in many (MANY!) cases, each believes the other to be at least somewhat irrational, or at least weighting evidence incorrectly. Why would we expect such a counterparty to get closer to truth over time, for a proposition that isn’t testable inside a reasonable time window?
A much better mechanism is to dive into cruxes and agree on shorter-term outcomes that you have different predictions for, based on your models. Bet on those.