Infra-Bayesian physicalism does ameliorate the problem by handling “embededness”. Specifically, it ameliorates it by removing the need to have bridge rules in your hypotheses. This doesn’t get rid of malign hypotheses entirely, but it does mean they no longer have an astronomical advantage in complexity over the true hypothesis.
I agree that removing bridge hypotheses removes one of the advantages for malign hypotheses. I didn’t mention this because it doesn’t seem like the way in which john is using “embededness;” for example, it seems orthogonal to the way in which the situation violates the conditions for solomonoff induction to be eventually correct. I’d stand by saying that it doesn’t appear to make the problem go away.
That said, it seems to me like you basically need to take a decision-theoretic approach to have any hope of ruling out malign hypotheses (since otherwise they also get big benefits from the influence update). And then once you’ve done that in a sensible way it seems like it also addresses any issues with embededness (though maybe we just want to say that those are being solved inside the decision theory). If you want to recover the expected behavior of induction as a component of intelligent reasoning (rather than a component of the utility function + an instrumental step in intelligent reasoning) then it seems like you need a more different tack.
Can you elaborate on this? Why is it unlikely in realistic cases, and what other reason do we have to avoid the “messed up situation”?
If your inductor actually finds and runs a hypothesis much smarter than you, then you are doing a terrible job ) of using your resources, since you are trying to be ~as smart as you can using all of the available resources. If you do the same induction but just remove the malign hypotheses, then it seems like you are even dumber and the problem is even worse viewed from the competitiveness perspective.
I’d stand by saying that it doesn’t appear to make the problem go away.
Sure. But it becomes much more amenable to methods such as confidence thresholds, which are applicable to some alignment protocols at least.
That said, it seems to me like you basically need to take a decision-theoretic approach to have any hope of ruling out malign hypotheses
I’m not sure I understand what you mean by “decision-theoretic approach”. This attack vector has structure similar to acausal bargaining (between the AI and the attacker), so plausibly some decision theories that block acausal bargaining can rule out this as well. Is this what you mean?
If your inductor actually finds and runs a hypothesis much smarter than you, then you are doing a terrible job ) of using your resources, since you are trying to be ~as smart as you can using all of the available resources.
This seems wrong to me. The inductor doesn’t literally simulate the attacker. It reasons about the attacker (using some theory of metacosmology) and infers what the attacker would do, which doesn’t imply any wastefulness.
Sure. But it becomes much more amenable to methods such as confidence thresholds, which are applicable to some alignment protocols at least.
It seems like you have to get close to eliminating malign hypotheses in order to apply such methods (i.e. they don’t work once malign hypotheses have > 99.9999999% of probability, so you need to ensure that benign hypothesis description is within 30 bits of the good hypothesis), and embededness alone isn’t enough to get you there.
I’m not sure I understand what you mean by “decision-theoretic approach”
I mean that you have some utility function, are choosing actions based on E[utility|action], and perform solomonoff induction only instrumentally because it suggests ways in which your own decision is correlated with utility. There is still something like the universal prior in the definition of utility, but it no longer cares at all about your particular experiences (and if you try to define utility in terms of solomonoff induction applied to your experiences, e.g. by learning a human, then it seems again vulnerable to attack bridging hypotheses or no).
This seems wrong to me. The inductor doesn’t literally simulate the attacker. It reasons about the attacker (using some theory of metacosmology) and infers what the attacker would do, which doesn’t imply any wastefulness.
I agree that the situation is better when solomonoff induction is something you are reasoning about rather than an approximate description of your reasoning. In that case it’s not completely pathological, but it still seems bad in a similar way to reason about the world by reasoning about other agents reasoning about the world (rather than by direct learning the lessons that those agents have learned and applying those lessons in the same way that those agents would apply them).
It seems like you have to get close to eliminating malign hypotheses in order to apply such methods (i.e. they don’t work once malign hypotheses have > 99.9999999% of probability, so you need to ensure that benign hypothesis description is within 30 bits of the good hypothesis), and embededness alone isn’t enough to get you there.
Why is embededness not enough? Once you don’t have bridge rules, what is left is the laws of physics. What does the malign hypothesis explain about the laws of physics that the true hypothesis doesn’t explain?
I suspect (but don’t have a proof or even a theorem statement) that IB physicalism produces some kind of agreement theorem for different agents within the same universe, which would guarantee that the user and the AI should converge to the same beliefs (provided that both of them follow IBP).
I mean that you have some utility function, are choosing actions based on E[utility|action], and perform solomonoff induction only instrumentally because it suggests ways in which your own decision is correlated with utility. There is still something like the universal prior in the definition of utility, but it no longer cares at all about your particular experiences...
I’m not sure I follow your reasoning, but IBP sort of does that. In IBP we don’t have subjective expectations per se, only an equation for how to “updatelessly” evaluate different policies.
I agree that the situation is better when solomonoff induction is something you are reasoning about rather than an approximate description of your reasoning. In that case it’s not completely pathological, but it still seems bad in a similar way to reason about the world by reasoning about other agents reasoning about the world (rather than by direct learning the lessons that those agents have learned and applying those lessons in the same way that those agents would apply them).
Okay, but suppose that the AI has real evidence for the simulation hypothesis (evidence that we would consider valid). For example, suppose that there is some metacosmological explanation for the precise value of the fine structure constant (not in the sense of, this is the value which supports life, but in the sense of, this is the value that simulators like to simulate). Do you agree that in this case it is completely rational for the AI to reason about the world via reasoning about the simulators?
I’m not sure I follow your reasoning, but IBP sort of does that. In IBP we don’t have subjective expectations per se, only an equation for how to “updatelessly” evaluate different policies.
It seems like any approach that evaluates policies based on their consequences is fine, isn’t it? That is, malign hypotheses dominate the posterior for my experiences, but not for things I consider morally valuable.
I may just not be understanding the proposal for how the IBP agent differs from the non-IBP agent. It seems like we are discussing a version that defines values differently, but where neither agent uses Solomonoff induction directly. Is that right?
It seems like any approach that evaluates policies based on their consequences is fine, isn’t it? That is, malign hypotheses dominate the posterior for my experiences, but not for things I consider morally valuable.
Why? Maybe you’re thinking of UDT? In which case, it’s sort of true but IBP is precisely a formalization of UDT + extra nuance regarding the input of the utility function.
I may just not be understanding the proposal for how the IBP agent differs from the non-IBP agent.
Well, IBP is explained here. I’m not sure what kind of non-IBP agent you’re imagining.
I agree that removing bridge hypotheses removes one of the advantages for malign hypotheses. I didn’t mention this because it doesn’t seem like the way in which john is using “embededness;” for example, it seems orthogonal to the way in which the situation violates the conditions for solomonoff induction to be eventually correct. I’d stand by saying that it doesn’t appear to make the problem go away.
That said, it seems to me like you basically need to take a decision-theoretic approach to have any hope of ruling out malign hypotheses (since otherwise they also get big benefits from the influence update). And then once you’ve done that in a sensible way it seems like it also addresses any issues with embededness (though maybe we just want to say that those are being solved inside the decision theory). If you want to recover the expected behavior of induction as a component of intelligent reasoning (rather than a component of the utility function + an instrumental step in intelligent reasoning) then it seems like you need a more different tack.
If your inductor actually finds and runs a hypothesis much smarter than you, then you are doing a terrible job ) of using your resources, since you are trying to be ~as smart as you can using all of the available resources. If you do the same induction but just remove the malign hypotheses, then it seems like you are even dumber and the problem is even worse viewed from the competitiveness perspective.
Sure. But it becomes much more amenable to methods such as confidence thresholds, which are applicable to some alignment protocols at least.
I’m not sure I understand what you mean by “decision-theoretic approach”. This attack vector has structure similar to acausal bargaining (between the AI and the attacker), so plausibly some decision theories that block acausal bargaining can rule out this as well. Is this what you mean?
This seems wrong to me. The inductor doesn’t literally simulate the attacker. It reasons about the attacker (using some theory of metacosmology) and infers what the attacker would do, which doesn’t imply any wastefulness.
It seems like you have to get close to eliminating malign hypotheses in order to apply such methods (i.e. they don’t work once malign hypotheses have > 99.9999999% of probability, so you need to ensure that benign hypothesis description is within 30 bits of the good hypothesis), and embededness alone isn’t enough to get you there.
I mean that you have some utility function, are choosing actions based on E[utility|action], and perform solomonoff induction only instrumentally because it suggests ways in which your own decision is correlated with utility. There is still something like the universal prior in the definition of utility, but it no longer cares at all about your particular experiences (and if you try to define utility in terms of solomonoff induction applied to your experiences, e.g. by learning a human, then it seems again vulnerable to attack bridging hypotheses or no).
I agree that the situation is better when solomonoff induction is something you are reasoning about rather than an approximate description of your reasoning. In that case it’s not completely pathological, but it still seems bad in a similar way to reason about the world by reasoning about other agents reasoning about the world (rather than by direct learning the lessons that those agents have learned and applying those lessons in the same way that those agents would apply them).
Why is embededness not enough? Once you don’t have bridge rules, what is left is the laws of physics. What does the malign hypothesis explain about the laws of physics that the true hypothesis doesn’t explain?
I suspect (but don’t have a proof or even a theorem statement) that IB physicalism produces some kind of agreement theorem for different agents within the same universe, which would guarantee that the user and the AI should converge to the same beliefs (provided that both of them follow IBP).
I’m not sure I follow your reasoning, but IBP sort of does that. In IBP we don’t have subjective expectations per se, only an equation for how to “updatelessly” evaluate different policies.
Okay, but suppose that the AI has real evidence for the simulation hypothesis (evidence that we would consider valid). For example, suppose that there is some metacosmological explanation for the precise value of the fine structure constant (not in the sense of, this is the value which supports life, but in the sense of, this is the value that simulators like to simulate). Do you agree that in this case it is completely rational for the AI to reason about the world via reasoning about the simulators?
It seems like any approach that evaluates policies based on their consequences is fine, isn’t it? That is, malign hypotheses dominate the posterior for my experiences, but not for things I consider morally valuable.
I may just not be understanding the proposal for how the IBP agent differs from the non-IBP agent. It seems like we are discussing a version that defines values differently, but where neither agent uses Solomonoff induction directly. Is that right?
Why? Maybe you’re thinking of UDT? In which case, it’s sort of true but IBP is precisely a formalization of UDT + extra nuance regarding the input of the utility function.
Well, IBP is explained here. I’m not sure what kind of non-IBP agent you’re imagining.