I’m not talking about back and forth between true and false, but between two explanations. You can have a multimodal probability distribution and two distant modes are about equally probable, and when you update, sometimes one is larger and sometimes the other. Of course one doesn’t need to choose a point estimate (maximum a posteriori), the distribution itself should ideally be believed in its entirety. But just as you can’t see the rabbit-duck as simultaneously 50% rabbit and 50% duck, one sometimes switches between different explanations, similarly to an MCMC sampling procedure.
I don’t want to argue this too much because it’s largely a preference of style and culture. I think the discussions are very repetitive and it’s an illusion that there is much to be learned by spending so much time thinking meta.
I’m not talking about back and forth between true and false, but between two explanations. You can have a multimodal probability distribution and two distant modes are about equally probable, and when you update, sometimes one is larger and sometimes the other. Of course one doesn’t need to choose a point estimate (maximum a posteriori), the distribution itself should ideally be believed in its entirety. But just as you can’t see the rabbit-duck as simultaneously 50% rabbit and 50% duck, one sometimes switches between different explanations, similarly to an MCMC sampling procedure.
I don’t want to argue this too much because it’s largely a preference of style and culture. I think the discussions are very repetitive and it’s an illusion that there is much to be learned by spending so much time thinking meta.
Anyway, I evaporate from the site for now.