The reason why I suggest looking at the width of the Wilson confidence interval instead of looking directly at the number of votes is because the width of the confidence interval is a direct measure of the information we have about a horoscope. It’s hard to reason about what is likely to happen when addressing amount of votes; what we really care about is the precision with which horoscope quality is known. In particular, learning the quality of extreme horoscopes (either good or bad) takes fewer votes than learning about 50 percenters, a fact which will be reflected in the width of the confidence interval.
The reason why I suggest looking at the width of the Wilson confidence interval instead of looking directly at the number of votes is because the width of the confidence interval is a direct measure of the information we have about a horoscope. It’s hard to reason about what is likely to happen when addressing amount of votes; what we really care about is the precision with which horoscope quality is known. In particular, learning the quality of extreme horoscopes (either good or bad) takes fewer votes than learning about 50 percenters, a fact which will be reflected in the width of the confidence interval.
That does make sense. It doesn’t help that each horoscope has 5 intervals, though. Maybe look at the narrowest one for each horoscope?
That seems reasonable.