Yeah, that sounds about right to me. I think in terms of this framework my claim is primarily “for reasonably complex systems, if you try to do 2 without expertise, you will fail, but you may not realize you have failed”.
I’m also noticing I mean something slightly different by “expertise” than is typically meant. My intended meaning of “expertise” is more like “you have lots of data and observations about the system”, e.g. I think LW self-help stuff is reasonably likely to work (for the LW audience) because people have lots of detailed knowledge and observations about themselves and their friends.
Yeah, that sounds about right to me. I think in terms of this framework my claim is primarily “for reasonably complex systems, if you try to do 2 without expertise, you will fail, but you may not realize you have failed”.
I’m also noticing I mean something slightly different by “expertise” than is typically meant. My intended meaning of “expertise” is more like “you have lots of data and observations about the system”, e.g. I think LW self-help stuff is reasonably likely to work (for the LW audience) because people have lots of detailed knowledge and observations about themselves and their friends.