In general, evaluate the credibility of experts on the decisions they make or recommend, not on the beliefs they espouse. The selection in our world is based much more on outcomes of decisions than on calibration of beliefs, so you should expect experts to be way better on the former than on the latter.
By “selection”, I mean both selection pressures generated by humans, e.g. which doctors gain the most reputation, and selection pressures generated by nature, e.g. most people know how to catch a ball even though most people would get conceptual physics questions wrong.
Similarly, trust decisions / recommendations given by experts more than the beliefs and justifications for those recommendations.
In general, evaluate the credibility of experts on the decisions they make or recommend, not on the beliefs they espouse. The selection in our world is based much more on outcomes of decisions than on calibration of beliefs, so you should expect experts to be way better on the former than on the latter.
By “selection”, I mean both selection pressures generated by humans, e.g. which doctors gain the most reputation, and selection pressures generated by nature, e.g. most people know how to catch a ball even though most people would get conceptual physics questions wrong.
Similarly, trust decisions / recommendations given by experts more than the beliefs and justifications for those recommendations.