Yeah, I think so? I have a vague sense that there are slight differences but I certainly haven’t explained them here.
EDIT: Also, I think a major point I would want to make if I wrote this post is that you will almost certainly be quite wrong if you use option 1 without expertise, in a way that other people without expertise won’t be able to identify, because there are far more ways the world can be than you (or others) will have thought about when making your gears-y model.
Sounds like you probably disagree with the (exaggeratedly stated) point made here then, yeah?
(My own take is the cop-out-like, “it depends”. I think how much you ought to defer to experts varies a lot based on what the topic is, what the specific question is, details of your own personal characteristics, how much thought you’ve put into it, etc.)
Sounds like you probably disagree with the (exaggeratedly stated) point made here then, yeah?
Correct.
My own take is the cop-out-like, “it depends”. I think how much you ought to defer to experts varies a lot based on what the topic is, what the specific question is, details of your own personal characteristics, how much thought you’ve put into it, etc.
I didn’t say you should defer to experts, just that if you try to build gears-y models you’ll be wrong. It’s totally possible that there’s no way to get to reliably correct answers and you instead want decisions that are good regardless of what the answer is.
It’s totally possible that there’s no way to get to reliably correct answers and you instead want decisions that are good regardless of what the answer is.
Options 1 & 2 sound to me a lot like inside view and outside view. Fair?
Yeah, I think so? I have a vague sense that there are slight differences but I certainly haven’t explained them here.
EDIT: Also, I think a major point I would want to make if I wrote this post is that you will almost certainly be quite wrong if you use option 1 without expertise, in a way that other people without expertise won’t be able to identify, because there are far more ways the world can be than you (or others) will have thought about when making your gears-y model.
Sounds like you probably disagree with the (exaggeratedly stated) point made here then, yeah?
(My own take is the cop-out-like, “it depends”. I think how much you ought to defer to experts varies a lot based on what the topic is, what the specific question is, details of your own personal characteristics, how much thought you’ve put into it, etc.)
Correct.
I didn’t say you should defer to experts, just that if you try to build gears-y models you’ll be wrong. It’s totally possible that there’s no way to get to reliably correct answers and you instead want decisions that are good regardless of what the answer is.
Good point!