The opposition has one the last three contested elections in surprise victories, so predict the same outcome.
That seems like a pretty bad 2-strat. Something that has happened three times is not a “stable high-level feature of the world”. (Especially if the preceding time it didn’t happen, which I infer since you didn’t say “the last four contested elections”.)
If that’s the best 2-strat available, I think I would have ex ante said that you should go with a 1-strat.
That seems like a pretty bad 2-strat. Something that has happened three times is not a “stable high-level feature of the world”. (Especially if the preceding time it didn’t happen, which I infer since you didn’t say “the last four contested elections”.)
If that’s the best 2-strat available, I think I would have ex ante said that you should go with a 1-strat.
Haha agreed.