But there is no possible world with a perfect predictor, unless it has a perfect track record by chance. More obviously, there is no possible world in which we can deduce, from a finite number of observations, that a predictor is perfect. The Newcomb paradox requires the decider to know, with certainty, that Omega is a perfect predictor. That hypothesis is impossible, and thus inadmissible; so any argument in which something is deduced from that fact is invalid.
The argument goes through on probabilities of each possible world, the limit toward perfection is not singular. given the 1000:1 reward ratio, for any predictor who is substantially better than chance once ought to one-box to maximize EV. Anyway, this is an old argument where people rarely manage to convince the other side.
But there is no possible world with a perfect predictor, unless it has a perfect track record by chance. More obviously, there is no possible world in which we can deduce, from a finite number of observations, that a predictor is perfect. The Newcomb paradox requires the decider to know, with certainty, that Omega is a perfect predictor. That hypothesis is impossible, and thus inadmissible; so any argument in which something is deduced from that fact is invalid.
The argument goes through on probabilities of each possible world, the limit toward perfection is not singular. given the 1000:1 reward ratio, for any predictor who is substantially better than chance once ought to one-box to maximize EV. Anyway, this is an old argument where people rarely manage to convince the other side.